“When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, Sir?” While this quote is typically attributed to the famous economist John Maynard Keynes, historians are not sure he actually said it. Nevertheless, it is good advice, as many facts have changed in the wake of the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and the subsequent decision by the Federal Deposit Insurance Commission (FDIC) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) to make all depositors whole. Taking the time to re-evaluate one’s views on the U.S. economic outlook makes considerable sense. And, in so doing we want to frame the dilemma facing the Fed as it makes difficult decisions about the path of short-term rates.
There is a risk of loss in trading futures. Futures trading is not suitable for all persons. While managed futures can help enhance returns and reduce risk, they can also result in further losses in a portfolio.
Studies conducted of manage futures as a whole may not be indicative of the performance of any individual CTA or CTA index.
A CTA index may not represent the entire universe of CTA’s, and in most cases, individuals cannot invest in these indices. The actual rates of CTA returns may be significantly different and more volatile than those of a CTA index.