Fed’s Rates Dilemma amid Banking Headwinds

By Bluford Putnam, Chief Economist CME Group

“When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, Sir?” While this quote is typically attributed to the famous economist John Maynard Keynes, historians are not sure he actually said it. Nevertheless, it is good advice, as many facts have changed in the wake of the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and the subsequent decision by the Federal Deposit Insurance Commission (FDIC) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) to make all depositors whole. Taking the time to re-evaluate one’s views on the U.S. economic outlook makes considerable sense. And, in so doing we want to frame the dilemma facing the Fed as it makes difficult decisions about the path of short-term rates.

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