Evolving Expectations in Equities and Bonds

By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist at CME Group

Investor expectations have changed in two notable ways in two and a half months. Firstly, expectations for dividend payments in the 2020s and early 2030s rose by 15% relative to where they had been previously as reflected by S&P 500® Annual Dividend futures (Figure 1). Secondly, the yield curve has steepened, which is traditionally a sign that investors anticipate a faster pace of economic growth.

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