How Will Proposed Tariff's Affect Commodity Prices? - SRB Capital Management

How Will Proposed Tariff’s Affect Commodity Prices?

Feb 27, 2025

President Donald Trump’s recent tariff policies are poised to significantly impact commodity prices across various sectors.

Metals:

• Aluminum and Steel: The administration has increased import tariffs on aluminum from 10% to 25% and maintained a 25% tariff on steel imports. These measures aim to bolster domestic production but have led to rising costs for U.S. manufacturers reliant on these metals. The Aluminum Association supports the tariffs but suggests exempting primary aluminum from Canada to mitigate potential supply disruptions.

• Copper: Plans to impose tariffs on copper imports have resulted in a surge in domestic copper stocks, with companies like Freeport-McMoRan experiencing stock increases. While this move seeks to reduce competition from foreign producers, it may also lead to higher costs in industries dependent on copper, such as electronics and construction.

Energy:

• Oil and Gas: A proposed 10% tariff on crude oil imports is expected to have a limited effect on overall oil prices. However, it could shift revenues toward the government and refiners, potentially leading to regional price variations. The administration’s broader goal of achieving “commodity dominance” includes enhancing the U.S. oil and gas trade surplus and reducing reliance on foreign energy sources.

Agriculture:

• Produce and Groceries: Tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada are anticipated to raise prices for various consumer goods, including fruits and vegetables. Given that a significant portion of U.S. vegetable imports come from Mexico, consumers may see noticeable price increases in grocery stores.

Economic Outlook:

Economists warn that these tariffs could lead to higher consumer prices and contribute to inflationary pressures. The Tax Foundation estimates that tariffs on Canada and Mexico could reduce long-term U.S. GDP by 0.3%, with additional impacts from tariffs on China and expanded steel and aluminum tariffs.

In summary, while the Trump administration’s tariffs aim to boost domestic production and reduce dependence on foreign imports, they are likely to result in increased commodity prices across multiple sectors, affecting both industries and consumers.

There is a risk of loss in trading futures. Futures trading is not suitable for all persons. While managed futures can help enhance returns and reduce risk, they can also result in further losses in a portfolio.

Studies conducted of manage futures as a whole may not be indicative of the performance of any individual CTA or CTA index.
A CTA index may not represent the entire universe of CTA’s, and in most cases, individuals cannot invest in these indices. The actual rates of CTA returns may be significantly different and more volatile than those of a CTA index.

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TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. THERE ARE NO GUARANTEES OF PROFIT NO MATTER WHO IS MANAGING YOUR MONEY. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. IN CONSIDERING WHETHER TO TRADE OR TO AUTHORIZE SOMEONE ELSE TO TRADE FOR YOU, YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE FOLLOWING: IF YOU PURCHASE A COMMODITY OPTION YOU MAY SUSTAIN A TOTAL LOSS OF THE PREMIUM AND OF ALL TRANSACTION COSTS. IF YOU PURCHASE OR SELL A COMMODITY FUTURES CONTRACT OR SELL A COMMODITY OPTION YOU MAY SUSTAIN A TOTAL LOSS OF THE INITIAL MARGIN FUNDS OR SECURITY DEPOSIT AND ANY ADDITIONAL FUNDS THAT YOU DEPOSIT WITH YOUR BROKER TO ESTABLISH OR MAINTAIN YOUR POSITION. IF THE MARKET MOVES AGAINST YOUR POSITION, YOU MAY BE CALLED UPON BY YOUR BROKER TO DEPOSIT A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF ADDITIONAL MARGIN FUNDS, ON SHORT NOTICE, IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN YOUR POSITION. IF YOU DO NOT PROVIDE THE REQUESTED FUNDS WITHIN THE PRESCRIBED TIME, YOUR POSITION MAY BE LIQUIDATED AT A LOSS, AND YOU WILL BE LIABLE FOR ANY RESULTING DEFICIT IN YOUR ACCOUNT.

UNDER CERTAIN MARKET CONDITIONS, YOU MAY FIND IT DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE TO LIQUIDATE A POSITION. THIS CAN OCCUR, FOR EXAMPLE, WHEN THE MARKET MAKES A ‘‘LIMIT MOVE.’’
THE PLACEMENT OF CONTINGENT ORDERS BY YOU OR YOUR TRADING ADVISOR, SUCH AS A ‘‘STOP-LOSS’’ OR ‘‘STOP-LIMIT’’ ORDER, WILL NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSSES TO THE INTENDED AMOUNTS, SINCE MARKET CONDITIONS MAY MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE TO EXECUTE SUCH ORDERS.

A ‘‘SPREAD’’ POSITION MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN A SIMPLE ‘‘LONG’’ OR ‘‘SHORT’’ POSITION.

THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE THAT IS OFTEN OBTAINABLE IN COMMODITY INTEREST TRADING CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. THE USE OF LEVERAGE CAN LEAD TO LARGE LOSSES AS WELL AS GAINS.
IN SOME CASES, MANAGED COMMODITY ACCOUNTS ARE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL CHARGES FOR MANAGEMENT AND ADVISORY FEES. IT MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THOSE ACCOUNTS THAT ARE SUBJECT TO THESE CHARGES TO MAKE SUBSTANTIAL TRADING PROFITS TO AVOID DEPLETION OR EXHAUSTION OF THEIR ASSETS. THE CTA DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT CONTAINS A COMPLETE DESCRIPTION OF THE PRINCIPAL RISK FACTORS AND EACH FEE TO BE CHARGED TO YOUR ACCOUNT BY THE COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR (“CTA”).

A COMPLETE DISCUSSION OF FEES AND CHARGES ARE REPORTED IN THE CTA’s DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT. SPECIFICALLY, ONE SHOULD RECOGNIZE THAT AN INTRODUCING BROKER MAY CHARGE A FRONT-END START UP FEE OF UP TO 6% OF THE INITIAL CONTRIBUTION. PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS CHARGE IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE PERFORMANCE OF THE COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR AND COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE CUSTOMERS ABILITY TO ACHIEVE SIMILAR RETURNS.

I understand and wish to proceed

There is a risk of loss in trading futures. Futures trading is not suitable for all persons. While managed futures can help enhance returns and reduce risk, they can also result in further losses in a portfolio.

Studies conducted of manage futures as a whole may not be indicative of the performance of any individual CTA or CTA index.

A CTA index may not represent the entire universe of CTA’s, and in most cases, individuals cannot invest in these indices. The actual rates of CTA returns may be significantly different and more volatile than those of a CTA index.

TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. THERE ARE NO GUARANTEES OF PROFIT NO MATTER WHO IS MANAGING YOUR MONEY. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. IN CONSIDERING WHETHER TO TRADE OR TO AUTHORIZE SOMEONE ELSE TO TRADE FOR YOU, YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE FOLLOWING: IF YOU PURCHASE A COMMODITY OPTION YOU MAY SUSTAIN A TOTAL LOSS OF THE PREMIUM AND OF ALL TRANSACTION COSTS. IF YOU PURCHASE OR SELL A COMMODITY FUTURES CONTRACT OR SELL A COMMODITY OPTION YOU MAY SUSTAIN A TOTAL LOSS OF THE INITIAL MARGIN FUNDS OR SECURITY DEPOSIT AND ANY ADDITIONAL FUNDS THAT YOU DEPOSIT WITH YOUR BROKER TO ESTABLISH OR MAINTAIN YOUR POSITION. IF THE MARKET MOVES AGAINST YOUR POSITION, YOU MAY BE CALLED UPON BY YOUR BROKER TO DEPOSIT A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF ADDITIONAL MARGIN FUNDS, ON SHORT NOTICE, IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN YOUR POSITION. IF YOU DO NOT PROVIDE THE REQUESTED FUNDS WITHIN THE PRESCRIBED TIME, YOUR POSITION MAY BE LIQUIDATED AT A LOSS, AND YOU WILL BE LIABLE FOR ANY RESULTING DEFICIT IN YOUR ACCOUNT.

UNDER CERTAIN MARKET CONDITIONS, YOU MAY FIND IT DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE TO LIQUIDATE A POSITION. THIS CAN OCCUR, FOR EXAMPLE, WHEN THE MARKET MAKES A ‘‘LIMIT MOVE.’’
THE PLACEMENT OF CONTINGENT ORDERS BY YOU OR YOUR TRADING ADVISOR, SUCH AS A ‘‘STOP-LOSS’’ OR ‘‘STOP-LIMIT’’ ORDER, WILL NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSSES TO THE INTENDED AMOUNTS, SINCE MARKET CONDITIONS MAY MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE TO EXECUTE SUCH ORDERS.

A ‘‘SPREAD’’ POSITION MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN A SIMPLE ‘‘LONG’’ OR ‘‘SHORT’’ POSITION.

THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE THAT IS OFTEN OBTAINABLE IN COMMODITY INTEREST TRADING CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. THE USE OF LEVERAGE CAN LEAD TO LARGE LOSSES AS WELL AS GAINS.
IN SOME CASES, MANAGED COMMODITY ACCOUNTS ARE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL CHARGES FOR MANAGEMENT AND ADVISORY FEES. IT MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THOSE ACCOUNTS THAT ARE SUBJECT TO THESE CHARGES TO MAKE SUBSTANTIAL TRADING PROFITS TO AVOID DEPLETION OR EXHAUSTION OF THEIR ASSETS. THE CTA DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT CONTAINS A COMPLETE DESCRIPTION OF THE PRINCIPAL RISK FACTORS AND EACH FEE TO BE CHARGED TO YOUR ACCOUNT BY THE COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR (“CTA”).

A COMPLETE DISCUSSION OF FEES AND CHARGES ARE REPORTED IN THE CTA’s DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT. SPECIFICALLY, ONE SHOULD RECOGNIZE THAT AN INTRODUCING BROKER MAY CHARGE A FRONT-END START UP FEE OF UP TO 6% OF THE INITIAL CONTRIBUTION. PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS CHARGE IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE PERFORMANCE OF THE COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR AND COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE CUSTOMERS ABILITY TO ACHIEVE SIMILAR RETURNS.

I understand and wish to proceed

There is a risk of loss in trading futures. Futures trading is not suitable for all persons. While managed futures can help enhance returns and reduce risk, they can also result in further losses in a portfolio.

Studies conducted of manage futures as a whole may not be indicative of the performance of any individual CTA or CTA index.

A CTA index may not represent the entire universe of CTA’s, and in most cases, individuals cannot invest in these indices. The actual rates of CTA returns may be significantly different and more volatile than those of a CTA index.

TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. THERE ARE NO GUARANTEES OF PROFIT NO MATTER WHO IS MANAGING YOUR MONEY. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. IN CONSIDERING WHETHER TO TRADE OR TO AUTHORIZE SOMEONE ELSE TO TRADE FOR YOU, YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE FOLLOWING: IF YOU PURCHASE A COMMODITY OPTION YOU MAY SUSTAIN A TOTAL LOSS OF THE PREMIUM AND OF ALL TRANSACTION COSTS. IF YOU PURCHASE OR SELL A COMMODITY FUTURES CONTRACT OR SELL A COMMODITY OPTION YOU MAY SUSTAIN A TOTAL LOSS OF THE INITIAL MARGIN FUNDS OR SECURITY DEPOSIT AND ANY ADDITIONAL FUNDS THAT YOU DEPOSIT WITH YOUR BROKER TO ESTABLISH OR MAINTAIN YOUR POSITION. IF THE MARKET MOVES AGAINST YOUR POSITION, YOU MAY BE CALLED UPON BY YOUR BROKER TO DEPOSIT A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF ADDITIONAL MARGIN FUNDS, ON SHORT NOTICE, IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN YOUR POSITION. IF YOU DO NOT PROVIDE THE REQUESTED FUNDS WITHIN THE PRESCRIBED TIME, YOUR POSITION MAY BE LIQUIDATED AT A LOSS, AND YOU WILL BE LIABLE FOR ANY RESULTING DEFICIT IN YOUR ACCOUNT.

UNDER CERTAIN MARKET CONDITIONS, YOU MAY FIND IT DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE TO LIQUIDATE A POSITION. THIS CAN OCCUR, FOR EXAMPLE, WHEN THE MARKET MAKES A ‘‘LIMIT MOVE.’’
THE PLACEMENT OF CONTINGENT ORDERS BY YOU OR YOUR TRADING ADVISOR, SUCH AS A ‘‘STOP-LOSS’’ OR ‘‘STOP-LIMIT’’ ORDER, WILL NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSSES TO THE INTENDED AMOUNTS, SINCE MARKET CONDITIONS MAY MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE TO EXECUTE SUCH ORDERS.

A ‘‘SPREAD’’ POSITION MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN A SIMPLE ‘‘LONG’’ OR ‘‘SHORT’’ POSITION.

THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE THAT IS OFTEN OBTAINABLE IN COMMODITY INTEREST TRADING CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. THE USE OF LEVERAGE CAN LEAD TO LARGE LOSSES AS WELL AS GAINS.
IN SOME CASES, MANAGED COMMODITY ACCOUNTS ARE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL CHARGES FOR MANAGEMENT AND ADVISORY FEES. IT MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THOSE ACCOUNTS THAT ARE SUBJECT TO THESE CHARGES TO MAKE SUBSTANTIAL TRADING PROFITS TO AVOID DEPLETION OR EXHAUSTION OF THEIR ASSETS. THE CTA DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT CONTAINS A COMPLETE DESCRIPTION OF THE PRINCIPAL RISK FACTORS AND EACH FEE TO BE CHARGED TO YOUR ACCOUNT BY THE COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR (“CTA”).

A COMPLETE DISCUSSION OF FEES AND CHARGES ARE REPORTED IN THE CTA’s DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT. SPECIFICALLY, ONE SHOULD RECOGNIZE THAT AN INTRODUCING BROKER MAY CHARGE A FRONT-END START UP FEE OF UP TO 6% OF THE INITIAL CONTRIBUTION. PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS CHARGE IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE PERFORMANCE OF THE COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR AND COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE CUSTOMERS ABILITY TO ACHIEVE SIMILAR RETURNS.

I understand and wish to proceed