Planning for the Next Phase - SRB Capital Management

Planning for the Next Phase

Nov 08, 2018

We wrote about phase transitions in July while the markets were still in a bullish period. Times have changed and the equity market leaders, Tech and Momentum, peaked in late August. Look no further than the highs of the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq for confirmation. The root cause of this behavior is likely peak earnings and inflation. Remember the market is generally a forward looking mechanism and is now focused on Q4 and the first half of 2019. The data and earnings comparisons will be difficult to match and exceed those of prior quarters. This will continue to place pressure on multiples and cause lower and choppy equity prices. The late cycle jump in wage growth will also affect corporate profit margins.

We have also experienced peaks in the CRB index and most base commodities as the result of a strong Dollar. The global breakdown in Emerging Markets and currencies has been the primary driver of U.S. Dollar trends. Global funds have flocked to the U.S. Dollar for safety. Many Emerging Market currencies have been in crash mode since January. Global equity markets have retreated over the
course of 2018, too. China, as an example, is down 25-30% since its January peak on the Shanghai Composite.

What does all this mean? As investors we have been accustomed to a relatively smooth equity growth curve the last few years particularly in the U.S. markets. Recent price behavior is signaling a change or phase transition. It is time to re- evaluate your portfolio and make some adjustments. We believe alternative investments will play a key role in portfolio performance in the next phase. Now is the time to position and/or increase allocations to this sector, of course there is never a guarantee that alternatives will protect you from investment losses or increase protection against market declines.

Remember hope is not a plan. Speak with your advisor/broker to create a strategy with the potential to capitalize on opportunities as we enter a new phase.

The content of this article is based upon the research and opinions of Robert Spears, Managing Partner, Optimized Trading LLC.

There is a risk of loss in trading futures. Futures trading is not suitable for all persons. While managed futures can help enhance returns and reduce risk, they can also result in further losses in a portfolio.

Studies conducted of manage futures as a whole may not be indicative of the performance of any individual CTA or CTA index.
A CTA index may not represent the entire universe of CTA’s, and in most cases, individuals cannot invest in these indices. The actual rates of CTA returns may be significantly different and more volatile than those of a CTA index.

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TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. THERE ARE NO GUARANTEES OF PROFIT NO MATTER WHO IS MANAGING YOUR MONEY. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. IN CONSIDERING WHETHER TO TRADE OR TO AUTHORIZE SOMEONE ELSE TO TRADE FOR YOU, YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE FOLLOWING: IF YOU PURCHASE A COMMODITY OPTION YOU MAY SUSTAIN A TOTAL LOSS OF THE PREMIUM AND OF ALL TRANSACTION COSTS. IF YOU PURCHASE OR SELL A COMMODITY FUTURES CONTRACT OR SELL A COMMODITY OPTION YOU MAY SUSTAIN A TOTAL LOSS OF THE INITIAL MARGIN FUNDS OR SECURITY DEPOSIT AND ANY ADDITIONAL FUNDS THAT YOU DEPOSIT WITH YOUR BROKER TO ESTABLISH OR MAINTAIN YOUR POSITION. IF THE MARKET MOVES AGAINST YOUR POSITION, YOU MAY BE CALLED UPON BY YOUR BROKER TO DEPOSIT A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF ADDITIONAL MARGIN FUNDS, ON SHORT NOTICE, IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN YOUR POSITION. IF YOU DO NOT PROVIDE THE REQUESTED FUNDS WITHIN THE PRESCRIBED TIME, YOUR POSITION MAY BE LIQUIDATED AT A LOSS, AND YOU WILL BE LIABLE FOR ANY RESULTING DEFICIT IN YOUR ACCOUNT.

UNDER CERTAIN MARKET CONDITIONS, YOU MAY FIND IT DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE TO LIQUIDATE A POSITION. THIS CAN OCCUR, FOR EXAMPLE, WHEN THE MARKET MAKES A ‘‘LIMIT MOVE.’’
THE PLACEMENT OF CONTINGENT ORDERS BY YOU OR YOUR TRADING ADVISOR, SUCH AS A ‘‘STOP-LOSS’’ OR ‘‘STOP-LIMIT’’ ORDER, WILL NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSSES TO THE INTENDED AMOUNTS, SINCE MARKET CONDITIONS MAY MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE TO EXECUTE SUCH ORDERS.

A ‘‘SPREAD’’ POSITION MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN A SIMPLE ‘‘LONG’’ OR ‘‘SHORT’’ POSITION.

THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE THAT IS OFTEN OBTAINABLE IN COMMODITY INTEREST TRADING CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. THE USE OF LEVERAGE CAN LEAD TO LARGE LOSSES AS WELL AS GAINS.
IN SOME CASES, MANAGED COMMODITY ACCOUNTS ARE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL CHARGES FOR MANAGEMENT AND ADVISORY FEES. IT MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THOSE ACCOUNTS THAT ARE SUBJECT TO THESE CHARGES TO MAKE SUBSTANTIAL TRADING PROFITS TO AVOID DEPLETION OR EXHAUSTION OF THEIR ASSETS. THE CTA DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT CONTAINS A COMPLETE DESCRIPTION OF THE PRINCIPAL RISK FACTORS AND EACH FEE TO BE CHARGED TO YOUR ACCOUNT BY THE COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR (“CTA”).

A COMPLETE DISCUSSION OF FEES AND CHARGES ARE REPORTED IN THE CTA’s DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT. SPECIFICALLY, ONE SHOULD RECOGNIZE THAT AN INTRODUCING BROKER MAY CHARGE A FRONT-END START UP FEE OF UP TO 6% OF THE INITIAL CONTRIBUTION. PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS CHARGE IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE PERFORMANCE OF THE COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR AND COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE CUSTOMERS ABILITY TO ACHIEVE SIMILAR RETURNS.

I understand and wish to proceed

There is a risk of loss in trading futures. Futures trading is not suitable for all persons. While managed futures can help enhance returns and reduce risk, they can also result in further losses in a portfolio.

Studies conducted of manage futures as a whole may not be indicative of the performance of any individual CTA or CTA index.

A CTA index may not represent the entire universe of CTA’s, and in most cases, individuals cannot invest in these indices. The actual rates of CTA returns may be significantly different and more volatile than those of a CTA index.

TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. THERE ARE NO GUARANTEES OF PROFIT NO MATTER WHO IS MANAGING YOUR MONEY. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. IN CONSIDERING WHETHER TO TRADE OR TO AUTHORIZE SOMEONE ELSE TO TRADE FOR YOU, YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE FOLLOWING: IF YOU PURCHASE A COMMODITY OPTION YOU MAY SUSTAIN A TOTAL LOSS OF THE PREMIUM AND OF ALL TRANSACTION COSTS. IF YOU PURCHASE OR SELL A COMMODITY FUTURES CONTRACT OR SELL A COMMODITY OPTION YOU MAY SUSTAIN A TOTAL LOSS OF THE INITIAL MARGIN FUNDS OR SECURITY DEPOSIT AND ANY ADDITIONAL FUNDS THAT YOU DEPOSIT WITH YOUR BROKER TO ESTABLISH OR MAINTAIN YOUR POSITION. IF THE MARKET MOVES AGAINST YOUR POSITION, YOU MAY BE CALLED UPON BY YOUR BROKER TO DEPOSIT A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF ADDITIONAL MARGIN FUNDS, ON SHORT NOTICE, IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN YOUR POSITION. IF YOU DO NOT PROVIDE THE REQUESTED FUNDS WITHIN THE PRESCRIBED TIME, YOUR POSITION MAY BE LIQUIDATED AT A LOSS, AND YOU WILL BE LIABLE FOR ANY RESULTING DEFICIT IN YOUR ACCOUNT.

UNDER CERTAIN MARKET CONDITIONS, YOU MAY FIND IT DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE TO LIQUIDATE A POSITION. THIS CAN OCCUR, FOR EXAMPLE, WHEN THE MARKET MAKES A ‘‘LIMIT MOVE.’’
THE PLACEMENT OF CONTINGENT ORDERS BY YOU OR YOUR TRADING ADVISOR, SUCH AS A ‘‘STOP-LOSS’’ OR ‘‘STOP-LIMIT’’ ORDER, WILL NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSSES TO THE INTENDED AMOUNTS, SINCE MARKET CONDITIONS MAY MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE TO EXECUTE SUCH ORDERS.

A ‘‘SPREAD’’ POSITION MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN A SIMPLE ‘‘LONG’’ OR ‘‘SHORT’’ POSITION.

THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE THAT IS OFTEN OBTAINABLE IN COMMODITY INTEREST TRADING CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. THE USE OF LEVERAGE CAN LEAD TO LARGE LOSSES AS WELL AS GAINS.
IN SOME CASES, MANAGED COMMODITY ACCOUNTS ARE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL CHARGES FOR MANAGEMENT AND ADVISORY FEES. IT MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THOSE ACCOUNTS THAT ARE SUBJECT TO THESE CHARGES TO MAKE SUBSTANTIAL TRADING PROFITS TO AVOID DEPLETION OR EXHAUSTION OF THEIR ASSETS. THE CTA DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT CONTAINS A COMPLETE DESCRIPTION OF THE PRINCIPAL RISK FACTORS AND EACH FEE TO BE CHARGED TO YOUR ACCOUNT BY THE COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR (“CTA”).

A COMPLETE DISCUSSION OF FEES AND CHARGES ARE REPORTED IN THE CTA’s DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT. SPECIFICALLY, ONE SHOULD RECOGNIZE THAT AN INTRODUCING BROKER MAY CHARGE A FRONT-END START UP FEE OF UP TO 6% OF THE INITIAL CONTRIBUTION. PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS CHARGE IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE PERFORMANCE OF THE COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR AND COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE CUSTOMERS ABILITY TO ACHIEVE SIMILAR RETURNS.

I understand and wish to proceed

There is a risk of loss in trading futures. Futures trading is not suitable for all persons. While managed futures can help enhance returns and reduce risk, they can also result in further losses in a portfolio.

Studies conducted of manage futures as a whole may not be indicative of the performance of any individual CTA or CTA index.

A CTA index may not represent the entire universe of CTA’s, and in most cases, individuals cannot invest in these indices. The actual rates of CTA returns may be significantly different and more volatile than those of a CTA index.

TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. THERE ARE NO GUARANTEES OF PROFIT NO MATTER WHO IS MANAGING YOUR MONEY. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. IN CONSIDERING WHETHER TO TRADE OR TO AUTHORIZE SOMEONE ELSE TO TRADE FOR YOU, YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE FOLLOWING: IF YOU PURCHASE A COMMODITY OPTION YOU MAY SUSTAIN A TOTAL LOSS OF THE PREMIUM AND OF ALL TRANSACTION COSTS. IF YOU PURCHASE OR SELL A COMMODITY FUTURES CONTRACT OR SELL A COMMODITY OPTION YOU MAY SUSTAIN A TOTAL LOSS OF THE INITIAL MARGIN FUNDS OR SECURITY DEPOSIT AND ANY ADDITIONAL FUNDS THAT YOU DEPOSIT WITH YOUR BROKER TO ESTABLISH OR MAINTAIN YOUR POSITION. IF THE MARKET MOVES AGAINST YOUR POSITION, YOU MAY BE CALLED UPON BY YOUR BROKER TO DEPOSIT A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF ADDITIONAL MARGIN FUNDS, ON SHORT NOTICE, IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN YOUR POSITION. IF YOU DO NOT PROVIDE THE REQUESTED FUNDS WITHIN THE PRESCRIBED TIME, YOUR POSITION MAY BE LIQUIDATED AT A LOSS, AND YOU WILL BE LIABLE FOR ANY RESULTING DEFICIT IN YOUR ACCOUNT.

UNDER CERTAIN MARKET CONDITIONS, YOU MAY FIND IT DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE TO LIQUIDATE A POSITION. THIS CAN OCCUR, FOR EXAMPLE, WHEN THE MARKET MAKES A ‘‘LIMIT MOVE.’’
THE PLACEMENT OF CONTINGENT ORDERS BY YOU OR YOUR TRADING ADVISOR, SUCH AS A ‘‘STOP-LOSS’’ OR ‘‘STOP-LIMIT’’ ORDER, WILL NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSSES TO THE INTENDED AMOUNTS, SINCE MARKET CONDITIONS MAY MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE TO EXECUTE SUCH ORDERS.

A ‘‘SPREAD’’ POSITION MAY NOT BE LESS RISKY THAN A SIMPLE ‘‘LONG’’ OR ‘‘SHORT’’ POSITION.

THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE THAT IS OFTEN OBTAINABLE IN COMMODITY INTEREST TRADING CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. THE USE OF LEVERAGE CAN LEAD TO LARGE LOSSES AS WELL AS GAINS.
IN SOME CASES, MANAGED COMMODITY ACCOUNTS ARE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL CHARGES FOR MANAGEMENT AND ADVISORY FEES. IT MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THOSE ACCOUNTS THAT ARE SUBJECT TO THESE CHARGES TO MAKE SUBSTANTIAL TRADING PROFITS TO AVOID DEPLETION OR EXHAUSTION OF THEIR ASSETS. THE CTA DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT CONTAINS A COMPLETE DESCRIPTION OF THE PRINCIPAL RISK FACTORS AND EACH FEE TO BE CHARGED TO YOUR ACCOUNT BY THE COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR (“CTA”).

A COMPLETE DISCUSSION OF FEES AND CHARGES ARE REPORTED IN THE CTA’s DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT. SPECIFICALLY, ONE SHOULD RECOGNIZE THAT AN INTRODUCING BROKER MAY CHARGE A FRONT-END START UP FEE OF UP TO 6% OF THE INITIAL CONTRIBUTION. PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS CHARGE IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE PERFORMANCE OF THE COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR AND COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE CUSTOMERS ABILITY TO ACHIEVE SIMILAR RETURNS.

I understand and wish to proceed