Trade war: Rising costs and possible recession?

By Blu Putnam, Chief Economist & Erik Norland, Senior Economist, CME Group


Trade war to hurt corporate profits, growth and consumers?

New round of tariffs on Sept 1 will raise cost of trade war to $80 billion
US, China likely to share cost equally; Chinese growth to slow by 0.33%-0.5%
US corporate profits could fall by 2%-2.5%, consumer prices could rise slightly
Sharper declines in business confidence, investments could worsen impact

Redirect to Watch CME Video

Will the trade war cause a recession?

July rate cut absolves Fed of a policy mistake causing a recession
Escalating US trade war with China could instead become the target
US business investments have slowed, companies diversifying supply chains
US economic expansion likely to slow down but no recession in sight

Redirect to Watch CME video